Assessment of Climate Change and Variability in Coastal Region
CHAPTER ONE
OBJECTIVES OF STUDY
The specific objectives are:
- To examine the rainfall and temperature trend in Lagos region (1981-2010)
- To assess the relative consequences of the climatic trends socio-economic activities and environment in Lagos region.
- To evaluate appropriate adaptation strategies towards sustainable Lagos coastal environment.
CHAPTER TWO
Climate Change and Its Impacts
It is now generally recognized that climate change is the greatest challenge to sustainable development, particularly in a developing country such as Nigeria. For a number of reasons, Lagos State is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Unless concerted and urgent action is taken to meet the challenge, climate change impacts could lead to:
- Widespread ecosystem degradation;
- Threats to social and economic development efforts; and
- Disruption of livelihoods, living conditions, health and well-being of a large proportion of the population, particularly the vulnerable groups, such as the poor, women, children and the elderly who depend on natural resources for their livelihood and live in marginal environments.
Why Climate Change Adaptation Must Be a Priority for Lagos State
There are several reasons why climate change adaptation must be a priority for Lagos State:
- Climate change is a threat to development and therefore needs to be taken into account in all ongoing and future development efforts;
- Climate change and its impacts are not just distant possibilities but are already taking place;
There is already an adaptation deficit given that the impacts of climate change variability have not been effectively tackled to date. If not addressed with the urgency that it deserves, this adaptation deficit could jeopardize what has already been achieved in the State’s development efforts and could compound the problems being caused by climate change;
Climate change impacts are increasing, as evidenced by an increased incidence of destructive storms and flood disasters in Lagos State. This trend is likely to continue, making it increasingly difficult to cope with the impacts of climate change.
Although people at the grassroots level are already adapting to climate change (Concern Universal, FARM-Africa, Find Your Feet, Self Help Africa and Utviklingsfondet/The Development Fund, 2009), they do not have the capacity to act as quickly and as comprehensively as the situation demands. Therefore, there is a need for external stimuli in the form of plans, policies and legislation, as well as external support for local initiatives.
Lagos State has several key climate change vulnerability factors, including:
- Because of its coastal location, the state is exposed to the threat of sea level rise and the risk of storm surges;
- Its predominantly low-lying topography makes it susceptible to submergence and widespread flooding.
- The state possesses fragile ecosystems, such as lagoons, swamps and freshwater bodies.
CHAPTER THREE
OVERVIEW OF EXISTING SITUATION
In this section, each of a number of critical sectors of the state is examined with a view to identifying the challenges that it faces with reference to the threat posed by climate change, the associated vulnerabilities and the implications of these challenges and vulnerabilities for designing effective adaptation strategies, as well as relevant existing governance structures and government policies.
Agriculture and Food Security
A substantial proportion of the rural population of Lagos State earns its living from subsistence, rain-fed agriculture, fishing, aquaculture and livestock rearing. Recent changes in rainfall patterns have made it difficult for farmers to know the best time to plant their crops.
State policy is to concentrate on areas of comparative advantage, such as fishing and aquaculture, poultry farming, rice farming and dry season irrigation farming. The state provides support to farming communities through its Agricultural Input Supply Agency to boost production and as part of “climate-proofing” the agricultural sector.
Water Resources
With its high mean annual rainfall, Lagos State has abundant water resources in the form of surface water (rivers, lagoons, lakes and creeks) and groundwater. The groundwater is contained in four main aquifers: a water table aquifer which is about 10m thick, and deeper aquifers at 5-20m, 20-70m and at 450m below sea level.
CHAPTER FOUR
EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN LAGOS STATE
Introduction
A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Lagos State must be informed by what the climate of the State is likely to be in the future. For this purpose, scientists build plausible pictures of future climate that are called climate scenarios. These scenarios are based on models that simulate the physical processes of atmospheric circulation that determine global climate. The models are then scaled down for particular regions of the world, such as West Africa or Nigeria.
Recently, the Climate Systems Analysis Group of the University of Cape Town developed two climate change scenarios for the Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (BNRCC) project. One of these scenarios, known as A2, is used in this document. It is based on a scenario that envisages higher global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than the other scenario, B1.
In 2010, Triple-E Systems Inc. of USA, in collaboration with the Pennsylvania State University, USA, and its Nigerian affiliate, Triple-E Systems Associates Limited, were contracted by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the Lagos State Government to undertake a study on climate change scenarios for Lagos State.
Temperature
The A2 scenario developed for the BNRCC project suggests that Nigeria will experience a warmer climate in the future, with a temperature increase of 0.04 degrees Celsius per year from now until the 2046-2065 period. Areas near the coast are expected to warm up at a slower rate. Ikeja is projected to have a temperature increase of between 1.4 and 2.3 degrees Celsius by 2046-2065. The Triple-E Systems report indicates that climate change will result in a temperature rise of about 3° C by the end of the century, and a slight increase in climate variability.
CHAPTER FIVE
CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE ACTIONS BY LAGOS STATE
Lagos is arguably the most proactive state in Nigeria in terms of climate change response activities. In order to benefit from the experience of other cities around the world, Lagos has become a member of the C40 Large Cities Climate Summit, an organization dedicated to helping some of the world’s largest cities to tackle the challenge of climate change.
In 2009, 2010 and 2011, the State organized a Climate Change Summit, bringing in experts from around the world to examine the threat that climate change poses to the State and how it should respond to it. Also in 2011, the State, in collaboration with the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), organized a congress on the theme, Building Climate Change Resilient African Cities: Climate Proofing Africa on the Road to COP 17. The Mayors and Local Government Chairmen present at the congress signed the African Mayors Climate Change Declaration that was drafted on the occasion of the Local Climate Solutions for Africa 2011 Congress held in February/March 2011 in Cape Town, South Africa.
References
- Beachland Resources Limited. (2011). Lagos State Adaptation Strategy – Draft Final Report.
- Lagos State Ministry of Environment, Ikeja, Lagos.
- CARE (2009). Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis Handbook; accessed at http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/adaptation/CARE CVCA Handbook.pdf
- Concern Universal, FARM-Africa, Find Your Feet, Self Help Africa and Utviklingsfondet/The Development Fund. (2009). Climate Frontline: African Communities Adapting to Survive.
- FDALR (1995). Reconnaissance Soil Survey of Nigeria. Federal Department of Agriculture and Land Resources, Abuja
- Heda Resource Centre. (2011). Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation and Governance Strategies for Lagos State (Recommendations for Policy Framework).
- IPCC (2001). Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II & III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK; accessed at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes – 2001/synthesis -syr/english/front.pdf
