Impact of Population Growth on Unemployment in Nigeria: an Empirical Analysis
CHAPTER ONE
Objectives of the study
The main objective of this study is to investigate the correlation between population and unemployment and how a rise in unemployment affects the growth and development of the country. Specifically, the study aims:
- To analyze the relationship between population growth and unemployment
- Find out causes of population growth and unemployment
- Suggest measures and policy to address the problem
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
The problem of youth unemployment is a problem that has been evident in Nigeria. You find out that in Nigeria, streets are scattered with bike riders and hawkers with an average level of education who would have secured employment or exhibit their skills and resources if there are suitable environments and structures that encourage such. This situation has moved the attention of unemployed youths to cybercrime which is commonly known as 419 (P. S. O. Uddin and Uddin, 2013). This indicates the wrong use of technology which is ordinarily supposed to be used for technological advancement as seen in countries like U.S and China.
According to the International Labor Organization, unemployed individuals are members of the country’s active population who are able, available, willing and seeking for job but cannot find any work, including those who willingly left their work and those who lost their jobs (P. S. O. Uddin and Uddin, 2013). It also include those who cannot find the type of job of their expertise or training. Government are advised to strive hard to create feasible structures that can encourage youths to think intensely towards job creation instead of job pilfering (Tunde, 2012).
In Nigeria, unemployment has been grouped into two kinds namely; the older unemployed people who lost their jobs and the younger unemployed people who probably have never had a job. According to statistics report from the Bureau of Statistics, it was reported that Nigeria has 60% of its population to be youths, that is an estimate of 80 million people (P. S. O. Uddin and Uddin, 2013). Also, it was reported that 64 million of the youths are unemployed, while about 1.6 million of the people are under-employed. It has been observed in the 1991-2000 data that about 40% of the unemployed are people between the range of 20-24. The trend of unemployment rate has not been consistent over the years, but the fact still stands that the rate/degree of unemployment is growing at a geometric level (McKenna, 2015).
Unemployment is a massive macro-economic problem which the government ought to regulate and monitor it. There are different types of unemployment but for the sake of this study, we will look at four types (John O. Aiyedogbon, 2012). The first type of unemployment is called the frictional unemployment. This type of unemployment occur when there is industrial fiction whereby jobs may exist but the workers cannot fill in because of lack of awareness of the job or people do not match the skills required (P. S. O. Uddin and Uddin, 2013). The second type of unemplyment is the residual unemployment. This type of unemployment is caused by factors which include; mental or physical disability, old age and inefficient training. The third type of unemployment is called the technological unemployment. This type of unemployment arises as a result of changes in the technology and methods of production. These changes in techniques occurs constantly leading to an advanced mechanization in the whole process of production (Tunde, 2012). The fouth type of unemployment is called structural unemployment. This type of unemployment arises when there is a mismatch in the jobs demanded by industries/firms and the skills offered by the unemployment, due to a shift in the economy or technological changes (Tunde, 2012).
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Introduction
The channel, through which, population affect unemployment is through the level of economic activities in the country. If economic activities increase with the pace of population, the increased population will be absorbed, and unemployment will not be a concern.
Estimation Techniques
The research used historical research design and ordinary least square regression to analyze data and it was gathered from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical Bulletin and bureau of Statistic. The sample period is for 34-years from 1985 to 2019. Using the e-view software and data obtained from secondary source were tabulated and analyzed using multiple regression models.
CHAPTER FOUR
PRESENTATION OF DATA AND ANALYSIS
Discussion of Results
Testing for presence of Unit Roots in the Variables
Table 4.1 showed the results of unit root in the variables when they were tested at level and after they were differenced once. When the tests were conducted on the variables before they were differenced, the probability of T-statistics is 0.2 for total population that of total unemployment is 0.3, 0.1 for FDI inflow, 0.9 for domestic market, while it is 0.6 for exchange rate. They are all greater than 0.05. Similarly, the statistics for the T test are lower than the critical values at 1% and 5% for all the variables. This suggests that they contain unit roots.
CHAPTER FIVE
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
SUMMARY REVIEW
Unemployment rate can either increase or decrease proportionately with regard to population increase or decline. While unemployment is unimaginably growing despite economic recession, population growth is also on the increase. If this duo tyrant is not properly checked, it could pose a devastating effect on the nation’s future effect.
The findings in this study revealed that unemployment has greatly increased over the years which as at 2014 were 25.1%, with about 50% youth unemployment. Over the years, there has been a rise in population which is accompanied by a rise in unemployment. This study aimed to find out if population has an effect on unemployment, and from the regression analysis conducted, it shows that there is a positive correlation/relationship between unemployment and population growth. This implies that apart from improving other factors that causes unemployment, population growth in particular needs to be checked, and proper measures should be taken to reduce the population so that the population can match the jobs available. Unemployment from all indication is a threat that has lingered for so long and poses a serious problem in the growth and development of Nigeria. This means that the government needs to play a major role as well as stakeholders and international community in eliminating the present rise in unemployment through job creation. The leaders should also make possible effort to promote good and effective governance so as to help the unemployed.
Conclusion
Empirical analysis was carried out in testing the impact of population growth on unemployment in Nigeria, using the OLS multiple regression analytical method. Total unemployment rate (dependent variable) was regressed on total population in the country, size of domestic market or activities, flow of FDI, and exchange rate(independent variables) between 1985- 2019. It was established in the study that population and exchange rate have positive effects on unemployment while domestic market and FDI both have negative effects on unemployment in Nigeria. Based on the findings of this study, it is concluded that unemployment has serious consequences on the Nigerian economy. Employment generation as seen in this study is a means of alleviating poverty, increasing the level of economic activities which brings about economic growth. The unemployment situation in Nigeria is on the increase and it has resulted in increased poverty among the citizens, increased social vices, under utilization of human capacity, social alienation and weak purchasing power among others. Although the Nigerian Government in previous times had set up different policies and programmes to combat this menace, but these programmes have not made much impact and the expected result could still not be achieved. This is due to lack of transparency, lack of commitment to the programme, inadequate funding and absence of enabling environment, corruption and economic mismanagement among other reasons. This has made the Country to witness an alarming increase in unemployment incidence rather than reducing it.
Recommendations
RECOMMENDATIONS TO UNEMPLOYMENT
It is expected that everyone should join hands in building Nigeria where everyone at all level is resourceful. The problem of unemployment is a chronic issue that is a threat to the Nigerian economy and development. The first and key solution to unemployment is for the government to come into play by taking the responsibility of creating a socio-economic and political atmosphere that will provide necessary infrastructures so that it can make industrial sector investment friendly so as to attract investors to invest, thus, creating job opportunities that will absorb the unemployed people in the country (Tunde, 2012). Also, wealthy individuals can take example from Senator Akinlabi Olasunkanmi, (the former minister of youth and development) by embarking on developing centers that will massively train the youths on useful trade and entrepreneurial skills in different aspects like technology, automobiles and agricultural production. Nigeria is blessed and has so many areas to explore that can boost unemployment and the economy at large if given the opportunity (Anthony Ilegbinosa, 2013).
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