The Economic Importance of Coronavirus in Nigeria” Using Lagos as a Case Study
Chapter One
Objectives of the study
The main aim of the research work will be to determine the economic importance of coronavirus in Nigeria” using Lagos as a case study. The specific objectives of the study are:
- to determine the relationship between corona virus disease (COVID-19) and the Lagos stateeconomy
- to determine the causes of corona virus disease (COVID-19)
- to determine the mode of transmission of the corona virus disease (COVID-19)
- to determine the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) import and export rates in Lagos state
- to determine effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the education sector in Lagos state
- to determine the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the health and well being of the Lagos state citizens
- to recommends preventive measure to be adopted by the Nigeria government in fight against the corona virus disease (COVID-19)
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Conceptual review
Overview of Coronavirus
Coronavirus disease 2019 (abbreviated “COVID-19”) is an emerging respiratory disease that is caused by a novel coronavirus and was first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The disease is highly infectious, and its main clinical symptoms include fever, dry cough, fatigue, myalgia, and dyspnea. In China, 18.5% of the patients with COVID-19 develop to the severe stage, which is characterized by acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, difficult-to-tackle metabolic acidosis, and bleeding and coagulation dysfunction (Utibe, 2019).
The first infected patient who had clinical manifestations such as fever, cough, and dyspnea was reported on 12 December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, 2019-nCoV has spread rapidly to other countries via different ways such as airline traveling and now, COVID-19 is the world’s pandemic problem (Felix, 2020).
Coronaviruses (CoV) infections are emerging respiratory viruses and known to cause illness ranging from the common cold to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) (Yin et al., 2019). CoV is zoonotic pathogens that can be transmitted via animal-to-human and human-to-human. Multiple epidemic outbreaks occurred during 2002 (SARS) with ~800 deaths and 2012 (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: MERS-CoV) with 860 deaths (Lee, 2020). Approximately eight years after the MERS-CoV epidemic, the current outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, has emerged as a global outbreak and significant public health issue. On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). Astonishingly, in the first week of March, a devastating number of new cases have been reported globally, emerging as a pandemic. As of 9 March 2020, more than 110,000 confirmed cases across 105 countries and more than 3800 deaths have been reported (Philemon et al., 2020).
The COVID-19 is spread by human-to-human through droplets, feco-oral, and direct contact, with an incubation period of 2-14 days. So far, no antiviral treatment or vaccine has been recommended explicitly for COVID-19. Therefore, applying the preventive measure to control COVID-19 infection is the utmost critical intervention. Healthcare workers (HCWs) are the primary section in contact with patients and are an important source of exposure to the infected cases in the healthcare settings, thus, expected to be at a high risk of infections. By the end of January, the WHO and CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) have published recommendations for the prevention and control of COVID-19 for HCWs. Indeed, the WHO also initiated several online training sessions and materials on COVID-19 in various languages to strengthen the preventive strategies, including raising awareness, and training HCWs preparedness activities (Wan, 2019). In several instances, misunderstandings of HCWs delayed controlling efforts to provide necessary treatment, implicate rapid spread of infection in hospitals, and also may put the patients’ lives at risk. In this regard, the COVID-19 epidemic offers a unique opportunity to investigate the level of knowledge, and perceptions of HCWs during this global health crisis. Besides, we also explored the role of different information sources in shaping HCWs knowledge and perceptions on COVID-19 during this peak period.
It seems that the current widespread outbreak has been partly associated with a delay in diagnosis and poor infection control procedures. As transmission within hospitals and protection of healthcare workers are important steps in the epidemic, the understanding or having enough information regarding sources, clinical manifestations, transmission routes, and prevention ways among healthcare workers can play roles for this gal assessment. Since nurses are in close contact with infected people, they are the main part of the infection transmission chain and their knowledge of 2019-nCoV prevention and protection procedures can help prevent the transmission chain. Iran is one of the most epidemic countries for COVID-19 and there is no information regarding the awareness and attitude of Iranian nurses about this infectious disease.
Covid-19 spillover to the Nigerian economy
There are five main ways through which the Covid-19 pandemic spilled over into Nigeria. One, the Covid-19 pandemic affected borrowers’ capacity to service loans, which gave rise to NPLs that depressed banks’ earnings and eventually impaired bank soundness and stability.
Subsequently, banks were reluctant to lend as more and more borrowers struggled to repay the loans granted to them before the Covid-19 outbreak. Two, there were oil demand shocks which was reflected in the sharp decline in oil price. The most visible and immediate spillover was the drop in the price of crude oil, which dropped from nearly US$60 per barrel to as low as US$30 per barrel in March. During the pandemic, people were no longer travelling and this led to a sustained fall in the demand for aviation fuel and automobile fuel which affected Nigeria’s net oil revenue, and eventually affected Nigeria’s foreign reserve. Three, there were supply shocks in the global supply chain as many importers shut down their factories and closed their borders particularly China.
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Design
The aggregate demand and aggregate supply (AD-AS) model, consistent with Blanchard and Quah (1989) and Cover et al. (2006); will provide the theoretical motivation for the empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effect of Covid-19 in Lagos state. The AD-AS model will present the framework that explains economic fluctuations based on the interaction of aggregate demand (AD), short-run aggregate supply (SRAS), and long-run aggregate supply (LRAS). Undoubtedly, the Covid-19 pandemic has caused both supply and demand shocks among others. In a bivariate framework, aggregate demand and supply shocks cause significant fluctuations in economic activities. While the AD shock is assumed to have no long-run effect on output, a supply shock causes changes in basic macroeconomic variables; such as output and prices, in line with changes in SRAS and LRAS, respectively.
Taking a cue from Blanchard and Quah (1989) and Cover et al. (2006), the framework of a simple AD-AS model is presented thus:
𝑦𝑡𝑠 =t-1𝑦𝑡 + 𝛼(𝑝𝑡 −t-1𝑝𝑡) + 𝜀𝑡, α > 0 (1)
(𝑦𝑡 + 𝑃𝑡)𝑑 = t-1(𝑦𝑡 + 𝑝𝑡)𝑑 + 𝜇𝑡 (2)
𝑦𝑡𝑑 = 𝑦𝑡𝑠 (3)
where yt and pt, are the logarithms of output and the price level respectively, during period t; t1𝑦𝑡 and t-1𝑝𝑡 are their expected values given information available at the end of period t-1; the superscripts s and d represent supply and demand; while 𝜀𝑡and 𝜇𝑡, respectively, denote the serially uncorrelated structural AS and AD shocks. Equation (1) is a Lucas (1972) AS curve in which output increases in response to unexpected increases in the price level and positive realizations of the AS shock εt. Equation (2) is the AD relationship; nominal aggregate demand equals its expected value plus a random demand disturbance, 𝜇𝑡.
Chapter Four
Data Analysis and Presentation
Research data
The will study use a daily data on Covid-19 pandemic for the period of Feb 28th to June 20th 2020 for Lagos state. The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) releases daily updates on Covid-19 cases in Lagos. The NCDC data will represent the state figures on total confirmed cases, total discharged, total fatalities and total number of laboratory tests carried out since the first case of the virus was recorded. The state Covid-19 cases will be further disaggregated into LG cases in order to represent the spread of the virus across the country. At a later date, the NCDC started providing information on the demographic characteristics of the confirmed cases. Data for global cases were sourced from the John Hopkins University database which provides daily updates on global cases of Covid-19 while the Africa Centre for Disease Control provides relevant data on Covid-19 cases in the region.
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