Time Series Analysis of Patient Attendance, University of Uyo Teaching Hospital
AIMS OF OBJECTIVE
- To determine whether there is an increase or decrease in patients’ attendance.
- To forecast the patient attendance by using linear trend method
- To forecast for patient attendance using the fitted trend equation from 2008 to 2012
Health is wealth. This is a popular slogan, which shows the link between health and economic wellbeing.
This was further exposed by Dr. HIRISHI NAKAJIMA director general WHO in World Health paper page 3, January to February 1999, when he stated that health goes hand in hand with economic and social development and that every man, woman and child should be in position to choose a healthy way of life. To do this, they must be adequately informed on health. The environment, water, food, good habit, and bad ones, he stated that health is our most precious possession, both individual and collectively, if they need for information on health statistics for research and planning on purpose as emphasized by Dr. Nakaima.
The above was also emphasized by Mr. Ukarine in the standard news papers of 3rd March 1990 page 3 column 1 when he presented a paper titled the primary health in which he stated that if the goals of health for all by the year 2000 “through primary health care is to be achieved” which is free of charge.
Therefore, comprehensive medical information which must be planned, executed and monitored must be available in our health delivery systems. He mentions that in most public and primary health institution, record keeping is virtually non-existence. This has deprived the medical personal of adequate historical information about their patient problems for this reason he said “there is need for the involvement of more medical records offices to take charge of day to day administration of the records of primary, secondary and tertiary level of health care delivery system.
According to a final year student BUKOLA TAIWO 1998, wrote a report based on his research title “statistical analysis of patient in Ibrahim Sani Abacha Memorial Hospital 1994-1996. The project, which was aimed at comparing in the out patient attendance with that of another year.
The highest affected eye illness was observed in 1994 while the lowest in 1995. The same applied to general ophthalmologic in age specific rate. This fall of affected eye illness was due to hospital charges.
To study the growth areas of a population in a certain geographical areas of given period, we consider all the factors that affect growth of population. This factor could be either statistical, agree, but we tend to think that all the data produced by the government that relating to population is the most useful.
Analysis of Time Series (Theoretical Concept)
In this chapter, the theoretical concept associated with time series shall be discussed and derived formula in interpreting the data collected.
DEFINITION OF BASIC CONCEPT
A time series could simply be defined as a series of value assumed by a variable at different point in time. It can also be seen as set of observation taken at specific time, usually at equal intervals. A good example of time series is a fire in factory delaying prevaluation, the cinema admission, the hourly temperature announced by weather bureau of a city and the total monthly sales in department store.
Mathematically, a time series is defined by a value y, y, y – – – – – of a variable Y (temperature, closing price of a share etc) at time t, t, t, – – – – – – thus Y is a function of t, symbolized by Y = F (t).
RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY AND ANALYSIS
This section consists of method of data collection used and method of data presentation. Methodology is known to be a powerful weapon or tool in the approval of research design. In research work method of data collection is for great importance where we are going to consider method of data collection, the two methods are associated to different sources of data, the methods are primary and secondary methods.
Here, at this point, it is necessary to know what statistics is all about. Statistic could be defined as the scientific method of collection, organizing, processing, analyzing and interpreting any numerical data about a set of variable in order to draw up inferences and for right decision making. Despite the two methods of data collection mentioned above, the project data collection from records documentary method or sources. This is any case can be under secondary method.
This data is documentary in that it was collected from animal records of patient’s attendance. These are medical records kept by the statistics offices of University of Uyo Teaching Hospital Kofan Gayan, Uyo.
METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
These are many techniques or methods of data collection. The must important among them is discussed as follows:
- Interview Method:By this method data collected from the information in their houses, or offices in the markets or on the street as the case may be ask the necessary question and enter the replies in special blank called scheduled.
- Mailing of Questionnaire: By the mailing of questionnaire method, a list of questions usually called a questionnaire, is mailed to the unfortunate who is expected to answer them and return completed form to the offices of origin, the success of this method depends very much on the efficient of the postal and telecommunication facilities available in the country.
- Registration Method: This is a method where by data are collected by keeping records of event immediately they occur, or soon after their occurrences. By this method information is collected through registration of birth, death, marriage, divorces, immigration and emigration, motor accident, industrial accidents etc it is more efficient in developed countries than in the developing ones.
- Documentary Method: The use of documentary sources is very important in the planning stage of collecting data from any of the source, primary or secondary. It is no use hurrying into the field without contributing any necessary past and present statistical investigation, official or private.
DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS
This chapter focused on data analysis and discussion of the results.
As the year proceeds, the trend line shows that there is a gradual or rather rapid increase in number of patient’s attendance in general. Thus, it is been noticed that the trend for the year 2008 and 2012 increases every month and this indicates that if all necessary things are held constant (i.e. adequate water supply, proper sanitation, good food and health care delivery etc to the people). Their will be negative response that means the number of patients will reduce.
In another hand, the increase is due to the discovery of new disease and also reoccurring of the disease, which have been in existence.
Averagely, there was a continual increase of both IN and OUT – patient’s attendance at University of Uyo Teaching Hospital from 1998 to 2007. The increase in number of patient’s attendance experienced by this hospital is not as a result of its inefficiency but as a result of newly discovered diseases such as aids and reoccurring of other existing ones.
In view, one can say that the attendance of patients could be large but rate of death occurring would be low, so in essence, the hospital is efficient in its treatment given to Uyo who turn up in this hospital.
The least square regression method is the most efficient for trend estimation. It is therefore recommended for use of any statistical analysis.
However, a conclusion has been drawn from the method that there was a continual increase in number of patients attendance in University of Uyo Teaching Hospital from the year 1998 to 2007. This implies that are the year proceeds the number of patient attendance in the hospital increase. This shows that every year various disease are discovered and other existing once also re-occur so, therefore, the number of patients attendance will also increase as the year period.
At this point in time, the hospital medical health care authority are advised to find solution (cure) to newly existing diseases and also continue to give proper treatment to other existing once in order to reduce the rate of death in the hospital and the country as a whole.
- P. GUPTA, Introduction to Statistical Method and 2nd Edition.
- O. LERCHE: Social and Economic Statistics, 1st Edition.
- R. CANOR and A. J. N MOWER: Statistics in Theory and Practice.
- W. Hafery: Handbook on Statistics.
- MURRAY R. Piegal: Schaums Outline Series Theory and Problems of Statistics (Metric) Edition.
- MAL Ahmed Kauru (2012), Notebook on Time Series.