The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity the Case of Delta State
Chapter One
Objective of the study
The objectives of the study are;
- To ascertain the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state
- To find out the effect of climate change on food security in Delta state
- To ascertain the effect of climate change on land
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Direct impact of climate change on agriculture
Changes in mean climate
The nature of agriculture and farming practices in any particular location are strongly influenced by the long-term mean climate state—the experience and infrastructure of local farming communities are generally appropriate to particular types of farming and to a particular group of crops which are known to be productive under the current climate. Changes in the mean climate away from current states may require adjustments to current practices in order to maintain productivity, and in some cases the optimum type of farming may change.
Higher growing season temperatures can significantly impact agricultural productivity, farm incomes and food security (Battisti & Naylor 2009). In mid and high latitudes, the suitability and productivity of crops are projected to increase and extend northwards, especially for cereals and cool season seed crops (Maracchi et al. 2005; Tuck et al. 2006; Olesen et al. 2007). Crops prevalent in southern Europe such as maize, sunflower and soya beans could also become viable further north and at higher altitudes (Hildén et al. 2005; Audsley et al. 2006; Olesen et al. 2007). Here, yields could increase by as much as 30 per cent by the 2050s, dependent on crop (Alexandrov et al. 2002; Ewert et al. 2005; Richter & Semenov 2005; Audsley et al. 2006; Olesen et al. 2007). For the coming century, Fisher et al. (2005) simulated large gains in potential agricultural land for the regions such as the Russian Federation, owing to longer planting windows and generally more favourable growing conditions under warming, amounting to a 64 per cent increase over 245 million hectares by the 2080s. However, technological development could outweigh these effects, resulting in combined wheat yield increases of 37–101% by the 2050s (Ewert et al. 2005).
Even moderate levels of climate change may not necessarily confer benefits to agriculture without adaptation by producers, as an increase in the mean seasonal temperature can bring forward the harvest time of current varieties of many crops and hence reduce final yield without adaptation to a longer growing season.
In areas where temperatures are already close to the physiological maxima for crops, such as seasonally arid and tropical regions, higher temperatures may be more immediately detrimental, increasing the heat stress on crops and water loss by evaporation. A 2°C local warming in the mid-latitudes could increase wheat production by nearly 10 per cent whereas at low latitudes the same amount of warming may decrease yields by nearly the same amount (figure 1). Different crops show different sensitivities to warming. It is important to note the large uncertainties in crop yield changes for a given level of warming (figure 1). By fitting statistical relationships between growing season temperature, precipitation and global average yield for six major crops, Lobell & Field (2007) estimated that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of 40 million tonne or US$5 billion (negative relationships between wheat, maize & barley with temperature).
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
INTRODUCTION
In this chapter, we described the research procedure for this study. A research methodology is a research process adopted or employed to systematically and scientifically present the results of a study to the research audience viz. a vis, the study beneficiaries.
RESEARCH DESIGN
Research designs are perceived to be an overall strategy adopted by the researcher whereby different components of the study are integrated in a logical manner to effectively address a research problem. In this study, the researcher employed the survey research design. This is due to the nature of the study whereby the opinion and views of people are sampled. According to Singleton & Straits, (2009), Survey research can use quantitative research strategies (e.g., using questionnaires with numerically rated items), qualitative research strategies (e.g., using open-ended questions), or both strategies (i.e., mixed methods). As it is often used to describe and explore human behaviour, surveys are therefore frequently used in social and psychological research.
POPULATION OF THE STUDY
According to Udoyen (2019), a study population is a group of elements or individuals as the case may be, who share similar characteristics. These similar features can include location, gender, age, sex or specific interest. The emphasis on study population is that it constitutes of individuals or elements that are homogeneous in description.
This study was carried to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Delta state form the population of the study.
SAMPLE SIZE DETERMINATION
A study sample is simply a systematic selected part of a population that infers its result on the population. In essence, it is that part of a whole that represents the whole and its members share characteristics in like similitude (Udoyen, 2019). In this study, the researcher adopted the convenient sampling method to determine the sample size.
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
This chapter presents the analysis of data derived through the questionnaire and key informant interview administered on the respondents in the study area. The analysis and interpretation were derived from the findings of the study. The data analysis depicts the simple frequency and percentage of the respondents as well as interpretation of the information gathered. A total of eighty (80) questionnaires were administered to respondents of which only seventy-seven (77) were returned and validated. This was due to irregular, incomplete and inappropriate responses to some questionnaire. For this study a total of 77 was validated for the analysis.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
Introduction
It is important to ascertain that the objective of this study was to ascertain the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state. In the preceding chapter, the relevant data collected for this study were presented, critically analyzed and appropriate interpretation given. In this chapter, certain recommendations made which in the opinion of the researcher will be of benefits in addressing the challenges of the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state
Summary
This study was on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state. three objectives were raised which included: To ascertain the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Delta state, To find out the effect of climate change on food security in Delta state and to ascertain the effect of climate change on land. A total of 77 responses were received and validated from the enrolled participants where all respondents were drawn from Delta state. Hypothesis was tested using Chi-Square statistical tool (SPSS).
Conclusion
The study shows that there is variability in Nigerian rainfall and temperature. The study also shows that the change in climate has significant effect on agricultural productivity. This is clearly revealed in the rainfall variable however temperature seem not an important variable of climate in determinants of agricultural productivity in Nigeria economy.
Recommendation
From the on-going, it could be recommended that Nigerian government needs to give agriculture a serious priority. The current climate change effect can be minimized if policy toward mitigation is geared. Agricultural productivity can be increased and sustained by developing agricultural technologies that are environmentally sensitive. Also agricultural innovation that increase soil nutrient and do not contribute to change in climate should be encouraged. Furthermore, since previous year’s climatic fluctuations affect the current productivity, recycling of this important climate factor (rainfall) should be encouraged in Nigeria in order to maintain a steady supply of agricultural produce.
References
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